Projected Deaths in the U.S. from COVID-19: October 12
Projected deaths from COVID-19 in the United States. Left: Cumulative reported COVID-19 deaths since February and forecasted deaths for the next four weeks in the United States. Models make various assumptions about the levels of social distancing and other interventions, which may not reflect recent changes in behavior. Right: “Ensemble” forecasts summarize the information from the individual forecasts.
The national ensemble forecast predicts that weekly reports of new COVID-19 deaths will be 3,400 to 7,100 and total between 229,000 to 240,000 by November 7, 2020.
Click to download State-Level Forecasts (PDF from CDC). The jurisdictions with the greatest likelihood of a larger number of deaths include Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Nevada, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Texas, and Utah.
Sources: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), an independent global health research center at the University of Washington, Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological + Socio-technical Systems (MOBS), Columbia University (CU), Imperial College, London (Imperial), University of Geneva (Geneva), and University of Texas, Austin (UT). For other models see .