Epidemic (Epi) Curves for Coronavirus COVID-19

Cases, Hospitalizations and Deaths for Selected Countries

Covid-19 Cases, Hospitalizations and Deaths Compared

Confirmed COVID-19 cases, deaths, hospital admissions, and patients in ICU per million people in the United States, UK, Australia and South Africa. Note the Omicron variant wave began first in South Africa, then spread to other countries including the UK, US, and Australia.

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Data sources: Johns Hopkins CSSE. Our World in Data.

Daily Confirmed COVID-19 Cases in Selected Countries

Rolling 7-day average of confirmed COVID-19 Cases in selected countries. Note that the left axis is linear rather than logarithmic and represents therolling 7-day average of cases reported to the European CDC by each country. Horizontal axis represents days since confirmed case reached 30/day.

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Data sources: Johns Hopkins University CSSE. Our World in Data.[1]

Countries with Highest COVID-19 Activity: New Cases

Recent Confirmed Cases in countries with the highest reported COVID-19 activity (United States, UK, Brazil, Russia, Germany, France, India). Note that the left axis is linear rather than logarithmic and representsthe number ofcases reported (rolling 7-day average) by each country.

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Data sources: Johns Hopkins CSSE. Our World in Data.

Weekly Hospitalizations for COVID-19

Weekly new hospital admissions for COVID-19 per million people in selected countries.

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Source: Our World in Data.

Total Confirmed COVID-19 Deaths in Selected Countries

Total number of deaths from COVID-19 in Brazil, China, India, Iran, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, S. Korea, UK, and United States. Note that the left axis is linear rather than logarithmic and represents the cumulative number of deaths reported to the European CDC by each country. Horizontal axis represents days since the 5th total confirmed death.

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Source: European CDC, Our World in Data.

U.S. COVID-19 Cases by Race/Ethnicity

COVID-19 Cases in the U.S. by Race/Ethnicity. Race/ethnicity data is available for only 48% of cases reported to CDC. According to the US Census Bureau Race/Ethnicity in the U.S. population is approximately: Hispanic or Latino (18%), Black (13%), Asian (6%), Native American (1.3%), two or more races (3%), White, not Hispanic or Latino (60%).

Source. U.S Centers for Disease Control[2]

Projected Deaths from COVID-19 in the U.S.

Projected Deaths in the U.S. from COVID-19

Projected deaths from COVID-19 in the United States that will likely occur oover the next 4 weeks.

The national ensemble forecast predicts that weekly reports of new COVID-19 deaths will be 1,600 to 3,900 and a total of 1,061,000 to 1,068,000 COVID-19 deaths will be reported by the week ending October 15, 2022.[3]

Click to download State-Level Forecasts (PDF from CDC).

Sources: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), an independent global health research center at the University of Washington,[4] Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological + Socio-technical Systems (MOBS), Columbia University (CU), Imperial College, London (Imperial), University of Geneva (Geneva), and University of Texas, Austin (UT). For other models see [3].

Global Epidemic Curve for COVID-19

Global COVID-19 Epidemic Curve - Cases & Deaths (WHO)

Epidemic curve of confirmed COVID-19 cases by WHO Region and total deaths. Graph shows cases and deaths by weeek of case reporting through September 11, 2022.

Source: Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports. World Health Organization.[5]

World Health Organization Regions

WHO Member States are grouped into six regions. Each region has a regional office. The map shows the WHO regions and the location of the regional offices.

What is an Epidemic (Epi) Curve?

• An epidemic curve, also known as an epi curve or epidemiological curve, is a statistical chart used to visualize the onset and progression of a disease outbreak.[6]
• Epi curves typically display a graph of the onset of illness among cases in an outbreak.
  • Horizontal x-axis shows the date of illness onset among cases.
  • Vertical y-axis shows the number of cases.
• For the COVID-19 outbreak, major agencies display cases differently:
  • World Health Organization (WHO) – show graphs based on the date of case reporting.[5]
  • US Centers for Disease Control (CDC) display cases by onset of illness. For COVID-19 the CDC has also started to report cumulative cases based on date of reporting.[2]

Flattening the COVID-19 Epidemic Curve

Flattening the COVID-19 Epidemic Curve

See below for explanation.

Source: US Centers for Disease Control (CDC), adapted by Unbound Medicine.

• Without speedy and coordinated public health actions such as rapid testing, isolation of cases, "social distancing" and stay-at -home policies, the number of COVID-19 cases could rise beyond the capacity of the healthcare system to handle severe cases (see red curve in relation to healthcare system capacity line in figure above). This occurred in Wuhan, China and is happening now in parts of Italy.
• The goal is to "flatten" the curve (green curve above) – reduce the daily rate of new cases so that the number of severe cases can be handled effectively by the healthcare system.
• Note that public health actions taken to "flatten the curve" do not guarantee the reduction in total number of cases during a pandemic. That will be determined by additional factors such the speed by which other effective prevention measures (e.g., vaccines) are developed.

Infographics

Infographic | Flattening the Epidemic Curve

Slowing the spread of the virus can reduce the chance of infection among high-risk populations and reduce the acute burden on healthcare systems and workers.

Sources: Community Mitigation Guidelines to Prevent Pandemic Influenza.[7] WHO Situation Reports.[5]

Infographic: Unbound Medicine

Tutorials

• Interactive tutorial on epidemic curves – from the CDC

More Info

References